Trans Nzioa Governor George Natembeya. PHOTO/UGC.
By PATRICK MAYOYO
In the evolving political equations, Governor George Natembeya, has emerged as a pivotal figure, capturing both public attention and political intrigue due to his presidential ambitions in 2027.
This move, however, has not been met with universal support within the political establishment. Instead, it has provoked intense political intrigues, particularly from President William Ruto’s political inner circle and key figures within the Kenya Kwanza administration, including Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula.
While the overt actions against Natembeya’s rising political profile are clearly designed to limit his influence, a deeper look reveals the underlying forces at play, the stakes involved, and the potential consequences for Kenya’s political future.
The machinations targeting Natembeya, including efforts to tarnish his reputation and even plots for his impeachment, are emblematic of the broader political contest within the ruling establishment and between the various ethnic blocs vying for power.
The initial and most apparent cause of the animosity towards Natembeya stems from his origins in the Mulembe Nation—the Luhya-speaking community—which has historically been a crucial voting bloc in Kenya’s elections.
The Luhya community, with its substantial numbers spread across the counties of Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma and Trans Nzioa in addition to diaspora voters has often found itself sidelined in the political arena, despite its numerical significance.
Natembeya’s presidential ambitions present a clear challenge to the existing political arrangements within Kenya Kwanza, specifically the delicate power balance in the western region, which President Ruto’s strategists cannot afford to lose.
For Ruto’s camp, the emergence of a presidential candidate from the Luhya community poses a significant threat to their 2027 election plans. Ruto’s political calculations are largely based on securing key regional blocs, including those from the Mt. Kenya region, where his influence has been waning since the 2022 elections.
The impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which severely undermined his political capital, has led Ruto’s team to reconsider how best to engage with the western region.
President William Ruto with ODM leader Raila Odinga. PHOTO/UGC.
They have realised that a strong contender like Natembeya, who commands respect within his community, could fragment their base and diminish their chances of securing a significant share of votes from Luhya voters in the next election cycle.
Moreover, Natembeya’s growing popularity among the Luhya people represents a political shift that could prove detrimental to Ruto’s strategy of maintaining control over the diverse ethnic communities that make up Kenya’s electorate.
The idea that a Luhya candidate could win a sizable portion of the vote would be disastrous for Ruto’s political ambitions in the western region, where his popularity is already on shaky ground.
The political rivalry intensifies when considering the positions of Mudavadi and Wetangula, two key Luhya political leaders who have become entrenched in Ruto’s administration. Their strategic interests, and particularly their ambitions for 2027, are at odds with Natembeya’s potential to gain traction as the new face of Luhya politics.
For Mudavadi, the situation is especially complicated. After dissolving his ANC party and joining Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Mudavadi has been trying to position himself as an unshakeable ally of the President.
Despite his claims of loyalty to the UDA, his political future is uncertain, and the emergence of Natembeya as a potential presidential contender challenges Mudavadi’s narrative.
Given Mudavadi’s previous association with opposition parties, particularly with Raila Odinga’s ODM, his shift to UDA and the dissolution of his ANC party has left him vulnerable to accusations of opportunism.
If Natembeya gains traction, particularly with a new political formation such as the Tawe Movement that is pending registration, Mudavadi’s political obituary could be written sooner rather than later.
Similarly, Wetangula, who has secured the position of Speaker of the National Assembly, has his own set of calculations.
Although his role places him in a powerful position within Kenya Kwanza, his support base within the Luhya community is contingent upon his ability to bring tangible benefits to his constituents.
National Assembly Speaker and Ford Kenya party leader Moses Wetangula. PHOTO/UGC.
Wetangula’s reluctance to challenge the status quo in the Kenya Kwanza administration is viewed by many as a sign of political complacency, further feeding Natembeya’s narrative that the so-called Luhya “kingpins” have failed to deliver on their promises.
Wetangula’s role as a presidential appointee in Ruto’s government places him in a difficult position, balancing national loyalty with regional expectations. As Natembeya’s political machine gains momentum, Wetangula may find himself increasingly sidelined in the broader political narrative of the western region.
Natembeya’s entry into the 2027 race is not merely an expression of personal ambition; it is also a challenge to the political status quo within the Luhya community.
Through the formation of the Tawe Movement—a political slogan that has gained traction within the western region—Natembeya has tapped into a growing sentiment of disenfranchisement among the Luhya people.
The movement’s rhetoric of unity and political empowerment for the Luhya community resonates with many who feel marginalized by both the government and the opposition.
Natembeya’s leadership in the Tawe Movement is likely to result in the formal registration of a new political party, further complicating the calculations for Ruto, Mudavadi, and Wetangula.
The potential consolidation of Luhya political power under Natembeya’s leadership would deal a blow to the influence of Kenya Kwanza’s Luhya leadership, particularly Mudavadi and Wetangula, whose political viability depends on maintaining their positions within the coalition.
Importantly, Natembeya has sought to challenge the dominant narrative of Luhya disunity. By pointing out that the Luhya community has consistently supported ODM in past elections, Natembeya has argued that the perceived disunity within the Luhya community is a constructed narrative designed to suppress their collective political voice.
He insists that ODM been receiving more than 80 percent of Luhya votes in the past election adding that could not be achieved if Luhyas were divided. This argument not only appeals to Luhya voters but also highlights a broader criticism of ODM and the Kenya Kwanza administration’s treatment of the Luhya community.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi. PHOTO/UGC.
The importance of the western region in Kenya’s political landscape cannot be overstated. With over 2.6 million registered voters in the Luhya-majority counties of Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, and Trans Nzoia, the region is a key swing constituency.
The upcoming voter registration exercise is expected to increase the number of registered voters to over three million, further cementing the significance of the western region as a battleground for presidential candidates.
For Natembeya, these numbers represent not just a voting bloc but a potential political base upon which to build a formidable presidential campaign.
By positioning himself as the voice of the Luhya people, Natembeya is capitalising on the growing discontent with the existing political leadership, which is perceived by many as having failed to address the community’s concerns.
His focus on mobilising new leadership within the Luhya community, rather than relying on established figures like Mudavadi and Wetangula, marks him as a challenger to the entrenched political order.
Governor Natembeya’s presidential aspirations have become a flashpoint in the ongoing political struggle for control over the western region of Kenya. While his rise has sparked fears among Ruto’s political strategists and caused unease among established Luhya leaders like Mudavadi and Wetangula, it also represents a significant challenge to the status quo.
As Natembeya continues to build his political base through the Tawe Movement, the stakes for the Luhya community’s political future in Kenya could not be higher.
Ultimately, the outcome of this political struggle will depend on how well Natembeya can consolidate support within the Luhya community, break free from the historical narrative of division, and build a broad-based coalition that transcends regional and ethnic boundaries.
If successful, he could reshape the political landscape of Kenya, not only by challenging the entrenched powers within the Kenya Kwanza administration but by offering the Luhya community a genuine alternative to the tired political elite that has, for too long, failed to deliver on their promises.
