A ship discharging containers at Mombasa Port. PHOTO/FILE
By PATRICK MAYOYO
The global trade scene has witnessed profound upheavals since US President Donald Trump embarked on an assertive trade war, primarily targeting China, shortly after assuming office.
Aimed at addressing what was perceived as longstanding trade imbalances, the Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese and other countries imports, triggering a wave of retaliatory measures and setting off ripple effects throughout the world economy.
Chinese ports—among the busiest and most strategically critical globally—have encountered considerable disruption.
Major gateways such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen, which form vital arteries in global supply chains, have reported significant variability in container throughput, particularly for shipments bound for the US.
“Port operations in Asia have become increasingly volatile due to shifting trade patterns, prompting carriers and terminal operators to reassess capacity and scheduling with a heightened sense of caution,” the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) has said.
The imposition of tariffs has introduced uncertainty that has deterred American importers, thereby reducing order volumes and diminishing port activity in China.
In response, many Chinese exporters have sought to diversify their markets, pivoting towards Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Yet, given the substantial volume of goods traditionally consumed by the US, this shift has not fully compensated for the decline. As a result, shipping delays, longer lead times, and logistical congestion have become more prevalent.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) noted in its annual review that, “Trade-restrictive measures introduced by major economies have contributed to a slowdown in global trade growth, with significant implications for developing nations and emerging markets.”
Estimates suggest that American households have also borne financial burdens due to tariffs, experiencing higher costs on consumer goods ranging from electronics to kitchen appliances.
Meanwhile, the economic repercussions for China have been profound. With a considerable portion of its export sector reliant on the US market, Chinese manufacturers have experienced declining demand, fuelling fears over job losses and a broader economic deceleration.
A report by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) observed: “Trade wars erode confidence and pose systemic risks to the global economic framework. The effects are rarely contained within the two primary participants—they ripple across the entire supply chain.”
These shifts have not been limited to China and the United States. The US–China trade war, while primarily involving the world’s two largest economies, has had tangible ripple effects on African ports, especially key regional hubs such as Durban (South Africa), Mombasa (Kenya), and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania).
These ports, which play a vital role in facilitating both regional and global trade, have experienced disruptions in several ways due to shifts in trade flows, investment patterns, and supply chain strategies brought on by the tariff standoff.
African ports like Durban, Mombasa, and Dar es Salaam serve as transhipment and regional trade hubs, especially for landlocked countries. With reduced exports from China to the US—and vice versa—Chinese demand for African raw materials and components also fell.
The International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA) has warned of declining business in African ports.
A ship anchored at Mombasa Port. PHOTO/FILE
“Fluctuating cargo volumes strain African logistics networks already operating close to capacity, especially in corridors reliant on a few critical port gateways,” FIATA said.
Most ports in Africa, such as Durban, Dar es Salaam and Mombasa, have seen decreased traffic volumes as a result of disrupted Chinese export flows.
Many African economies export raw materials and intermediate goods to China, which are then processed and shipped to the US. With reduced demand, these port economies have suffered from rising storage costs, delayed turnarounds, and increased pressure on already limited infrastructure.
FIATA, the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations, commented that “Freight forwarders have faced heightened complexity in routing and compliance as traditional trade corridors become less viable due to unpredictable policy shifts. Many are being forced to innovate and diversify at pace.”
The wider consequence has been a global reassessment of supply chains. To circumvent tariffs, many multinational companies have diversified their sourcing strategies and relocated manufacturing to countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India.
While this offers tariff relief, it places immense strain on logistics systems, particularly in regions unaccustomed to such rapid industrial scaling.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) added that “the sudden rerouting of maritime trade lanes has created regulatory and environmental challenges, particularly in emerging markets where port and customs infrastructure may not be adequately equipped to handle the surge in cargo volumes.”
In the United States, both imports from and exports to China have undergone significant changes. American businesses have sought alternative sourcing options, while Chinese buyers have diversified away from key American exports, most notably in agriculture. The US soybean and pork sectors were particularly hard hit, with China redirecting its purchases to countries like Brazil and Argentina.
In 2020, the WTO predicted a sharp decline in global trade growth—attributed in large part to the US–China trade war and the uncertainties it introduced into the trading environment. “The trade war has demonstrated the fragility of interdependence when subject to unilateral policy decisions,” said the WTO in a statement.
Moreover, countries with strong ties to both the US and China, including Germany, South Korea, and Mexico, have found themselves entangled in a web of disrupted trade flows and economic recalibration. These disruptions have forced policymakers and logistics planners to grapple with challenges far beyond their borders.
The trade war launched under President Trump has underscored the deeply interconnected nature of international trade and logistics.
While the immediate goal may have been to protect domestic industries, the unintended consequences—ranging from port congestion and longer transit times to global supply chain realignments—have reverberated worldwide.
As the ICS emphasised, “Maritime trade thrives on predictability and open markets. Prolonged trade tensions undermine efficiency and drive up costs for all stakeholders.” Similarly, the ICC warns that “persistent trade hostilities threaten to undo decades of progress in building a cooperative global trading system.”
While proponents of tariffs argue they offer long-term strategic benefits, the global evidence to date suggests the trade war has introduced more strain than stability.
As stakeholders across industries continue to adjust to the new normal, the international community watches closely—uncertain whether future policy shifts will pave the way for recovery or further deepen the fractures in global trade.
