Amani National Congress (ANC) party and United Democratic Alliance (UDA officials during the ANC-UDA merger at State House Nairobi. PHOTO/Presidency.
By PATRICK MAYOYO
Prime Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi, surprised friends and foes when he announced the decision to dissolve his Amani National Congress (ANC) party and merge it with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
This move by Mudavadi popularly referred to as MM by ANC loyalists has sparked intense political debate, as observers and stakeholders assess its potential impact on the 2027 General Election and MM’s long-term presidential ambitions.
The merger has introduced a complex set of questions about the political re-alignments in Kenya. While it strengthens President Ruto’s coalition and consolidates support in key regions, it also raises concerns about Mudavadi’s diminishing influence and the risks to his independent political identity.
The decision marks a pivotal moment in Mudavadi’s career, with far-reaching implications for both his future and the broader dynamics of Kenyan politics.
Mudavadi’s decision to merge ANC with UDA serves as a key strategic move in President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid.
By consolidating the political forces in Western Kenya, Mudavadi is enhancing Ruto’s political base, especially at a time when the Mt. Kenya region’s support for Ruto is reportedly wavering, largely due to internal power struggles and the controversial impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Western Kenya has historically been a swing vote region, and Mudavadi’s ANC is a key player within the Luhya community. Ruto’s efforts to attract a broad-based coalition, including Luhya support, will be bolstered by this merger, which presents an opportunity to neutralize opposition from within the region.
By positioning himself as the central figure in consolidating the Luhya vote, Mudavadi provides a valuable link in Ruto’s quest for a diverse electoral base.
Furthermore, the inclusion of Lamu Governor Issa Timamy as one of the deputy party leaders in the merged UDA signals a direct attempt to strengthen the alliance with key figures from ANC, solidifying the party’s influence in the region.
This unity also provides UDA with a larger pool of resources, both financially and in terms of political capital, which will be crucial in the highly competitive 2027 elections.
While the merger strengthens Ruto’s coalition, it raises critical questions about Mudavadi’s own political trajectory, particularly his presidential ambitions.
As Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi, has played a significant role in advancing Kenya’s foreign policy, particularly through economic diplomacy. PHOTO/Presidency.
Mudavadi’s supporters view the dissolution of ANC and its merger with UDA as a strategic blunder, potentially undermining his future political options. As the leader of ANC, Mudavadi wielded substantial influence in Western Kenya and was seen as one of the front-runners in the region for the 2027 or 2032 presidency.
The decision to join UDA without consulting key ANC stakeholders or obtaining approval from the party’s top organs has sparked internal discontent.
The lack of internal consensus could lead to legal challenges, further fracturing his support base. If the merger is seen as detrimental to the political identity of ANC, it risks alienating a significant segment of Mudavadi’s traditional voter base, who may feel betrayed by his decision to cede his independence.
In addition, Mudavadi’s diminished stature within the UDA could pose long-term challenges. As UDA becomes increasingly dominant within the Kenya Kwanza coalition, the potential for power struggles within the party is high, especially as various political figures, including Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and other key figures from Mt. Kenya, set their sights on the 2032 presidential race.
Mudavadi could find himself marginalized within a party where his influence is diluted, leaving him with limited political leverage in the run-up to 2032.
The political landscape of Western Kenya remains fluid, with multiple emerging political figures such as George Natembeya, Okiya Omtatah, and Eugene Wamalwa seeking to capture the region’s support. The realignment of the Luhya vote will be crucial for Ruto’s strategy, as it is one of the largest and most politically active communities in the country.
The decision to merge ANC with UDA also aligns with President Ruto’s efforts to consolidate this vote. However, there is a risk that such a consolidation could fragment the Luhya community’s support.
If rising political figures from the region manage to unite behind a single Luhya candidate—especially in a potential Mt. Kenya-Western political alliance—it could diminish Mudavadi’s influence and divide the Luhya vote, ultimately hurting UDA’s chances in the region.
The introduction of policies aimed at revitalizing the sugar industry in Western Kenya and addressing local economic concerns could win Ruto crucial support, but only if Mudavadi plays a central role in navigating regional concerns.
Any failure to do so could result in the alienation of key constituencies, especially if Mudavadi is unable to maintain his leadership role within UDA.
Three newly appointed Cabinet Secretaries Mr Mutahi Kagwe, Mr William Kabogo and Mr Lee Kinyanjui, who are said to be retired President Uhuru Kenyatta’s allies were sworn in at State House Nairobi, before assuming office. PHOTO/Presidency.
President Ruto’s long-term electoral strategy, including his 2032 succession plans, hinges on the ability to maintain a unified coalition, particularly through the consolidation of various ethnic blocs.
Mudavadi, by aligning with UDA, solidifies his place as a crucial ally within Kenya Kwanza, a role that could provide him with the resources and political clout to position himself as a key player in the 2032 race.
Mudavadi’s loyalty to Ruto, especially considering his past political setbacks, positions him as a dependable figure in the Kenya Kwanza fold. The historical ties between Mudavadi’s father, Moses Mudamba Mudavadi, and former President Daniel arap Moi also underscore the political loyalty that runs deep in the family, which could be an advantage in Ruto’s succession plans.
Mudavadi’s focus on economic diplomacy, as seen in his current role as the Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary, enhances his standing both domestically and internationally, ensuring that he remains relevant in both the local and global political spheres.
Mudavadi’s decision to merge ANC with UDA presents both opportunities and risks for his political future. On one hand, the merger could significantly strengthen President Ruto’s re-election chances in 2027, especially by consolidating the Luhya vote and reinforcing the Kenya Kwanza coalition.
On the other hand, Mudavadi risks diminishing his own political power, especially if the merger is perceived as a betrayal by his supporters and if internal party dynamics within UDA work against him.
While the 2027 elections will likely benefit from Mudavadi’s political maneuvering, the long-term consequences of this decision on his presidential ambitions remain uncertain.
His ability to navigate the shifting dynamics of Western Kenya’s political landscape and maintain his influence within UDA will be crucial in determining his political future.