Kenya’s former ambassador to Botswana, Mohamed Muktar Shidiye. PHOTO/UGC.
By ABDULHAKIM SHERMAN
The Garissa gubernatorial race is set to take a new dimension this weekend when Kenya’s former ambassador to Botswana, Mohamed Muktar Shidiye, gets endorsement from different stakeholders in Modogashe sub-county.
Shidiye’s endorsement in Modogashe coincides with another event in Ijara sub-county where a new gubernatorial aspirant is expected to get elders blessings to join the 2027 race.
The emerging developments come against a background where the chairman of the Garissa Council of Elders was impeached for allegedly favouring a relative in the gubernatorial race.
The three developments heighten the race for the 2027 Garissa gubernatorial race that has already attracted four aspirants. They include Shidiye, former Governor Ali Korane, who served in the role until 2022, Garissa Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji and Abdi Dubat, the East African Community Principal Secretary.
Shidiye has intensified his efforts in the highly competitive race for Garissa County Governor, by engaging with a wide range of stakeholders that include elders, youth and women, business people and professionals from the county.
The five aspirants are poised to battle it out for leadership in one of Kenya’s most politically complex counties. But beyond individual candidates’ ambitions, the race for Garissa’s top seat reveals broader trends in negotiated democracy, the influence of clan politics, and the shaping impact of national dynamics, particularly as they intersect with the evolving ambitions of presidential contenders.
In Garissa, as in much of Northern Kenya, politics are deeply interwoven with clan allegiances and negotiated democracy. The region has long been characterised by a political structure where local leadership is defined not just by public office, but by clan networks, traditional elders, and community influencers who broker power on behalf of the broader society.
This complex system of negotiated democracy, where decisions and endorsements often come from behind the scenes, will undoubtedly play a key role in determining who emerges victorious in 2027.
The planned endorsement of Shidiye by influential stakeholders in Modogashe sub-county highlights the crucial role of clan and community elders in this process. These endorsements are not merely ceremonial; they represent the formalisation of informal political networks, which can sway voting patterns in ways that are not always transparent to the broader electorate.
In Garissa, where clan-based loyalty and traditional authority hold considerable sway, such endorsements are invaluable, as they provide candidates with the kind of grassroots support that is essential to winning elections in the region.
Former Garissa Governor Ali Korane. PHOTO/UGC.
Shidiye’s efforts to engage directly with a diverse range of stakeholders, including elders, women’s groups, youth organisations, and the business community, indicate his recognition of the need to appeal beyond traditional clan lines.
By presenting himself as a candidate who is in tune with both modern governance and traditional values, Shidiye seeks to position himself as a unifying figure who can bridge the political divides that often define the region’s electoral contests.
At the same time, the emergence of other candidates such as Abdi Dubat, a seasoned technocrat with connections in regional politics, suggests that clan affiliations will be a double-edged sword.
While clan loyalty will undoubtedly influence some voters, others may be drawn to candidates who promise a more technocratic, less traditionalist approach to governance.
While clan dynamics will remain crucial, the 2027 Garissa gubernatorial race cannot be viewed in isolation from national political developments.
The national political landscape has a significant impact on local elections, particularly in regions like Garissa, where national party affiliations and the political alignments of the country’s elite often trickle down to affect local contests.
With Kenya’s political parties and coalitions increasingly defined by their affiliations to major national figures, the alignment of Garissa’s gubernatorial candidates to these political factions is likely to influence the outcome.
Shidiye, with his diplomatic background and his recent endorsement by local leaders, may seek to position himself in alignment with the current government or a major political coalition.
His connections, both within Garissa and beyond, make him a prime candidate to galvanise support from the national political establishment.
However, he must navigate the complexities of local politics, where direct connections to national figures may not always guarantee success.
Garissa Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji. PHOTO/UGC.
The presence of established political figures like Korane, who previously held the governorship, further complicates the dynamics. Korane’s political connections, both within Garissa and the larger political scene, will give him an advantage in terms of party loyalty and patronage.
His support base remains strong, particularly within Garissa’s political establishment, but whether this can translate into widespread popular support will be determined by his ability to address local issues with genuine solutions, especially in the face of increasing competition from the likes of Shidiye and Dubat.
Senator Haji, another key player in the race, will also leverage his national stature to consolidate support in Garissa. As a sitting senator, Haji brings with him political clout that extends beyond the county’s borders.
His national influence could allow him to attract both national funding and attention, and his ability to deliver on the economic and security issues that affect Garissa will likely shape his candidacy given his late father’s influence in the county and the likely support from his brother Noordin Haji, who is the Director General of the National Intelligence Service (NIS).
The presidential race in Kenya is another pivotal factor shaping the Garissa gubernatorial race. As the country’s political landscape is increasingly defined by the alliances and rivalries of presidential candidates, the choice of who leads the country will influence not only the flow of national resources but also local political allegiances.
If Garissa’s candidates are able to align themselves with the winning presidential candidate or coalition, they stand to benefit from increased patronage and development opportunities. That is why the northern Kenya region has gained the moniker AGIP (any government in power).
In the lead-up to the 2027 elections, it is anticipated that Garissa will be a key battleground for presidential aspirants looking to consolidate their support in the northern region.
Candidates seeking to tap into Garissa’s political base will need to make key alliances with influential local figures, which could have a significant knock-on effect on the gubernatorial contest.
Shidiye’s ability to engage with both local political elites and national players gives him a strategic advantage, as he positions himself as a leader who can represent Garissa both locally and on the national stage.
East African Community Principal Secretary (PS), Abdi Dubat.
In contrast, Dubat’s background as a technocrat in the government also signals his potential to appeal to a more urban, economically-focused voter base. His positioning as a candidate with strong ties to regional economic projects may resonate with younger, more urbanised residents of Garissa who are looking for governance that prioritises development and regional integration.
As the contest heats up, Mohamed Shidiye’s strategic positioning as a candidate for youth empowerment, gender equality, and economic development has generated significant local momentum.
His focus on youth unemployment and creating opportunities through vocational training, low-interest loans, and mentorship programmes appeals to Garissa’s growing youth demographic.
By prioritising women’s rights and increasing female representation in leadership, Shidiye is not only advocating for social justice but also broadening his support base, engaging a traditionally marginalised group within the county’s political ecosystem.
Moreover, Shidiye’s direct engagement with local communities, including his participation in religious and charitable activities, positions him as a candidate who understands the socio-cultural realities of Garissa.
His emphasis on community-driven development aligns with the values of many Garissa residents, who place a premium on leaders who are seen as grounded in local realities.
As the 2027 Garissa gubernatorial race unfolds, it is clear that the interplay of clan politics, national dynamics, and the influence of presidential candidates will be key factors shaping the outcome.
Shidiye’s rise as a formidable contender, alongside other strong candidates like Korane, Haji, and Dubat, will make for a highly competitive race.
The ultimate victor will be the one who can navigate the complex local political terrain, forge strategic national alliances, and, crucially, connect with Garissa’s electorate on a deeply personal and policy-driven level.
In a race defined by both traditional and modern political forces, the 2027 Garissa gubernatorial election will be a fascinating study in Kenya’s evolving democracy.
